Umbane, amandla amatsha, unako ukuloba kunye neenzipho zebhere zibe nazo zombini

Ngo-2035, umlinganiselo wemarike yamandla yaseTshayina uya kodlula lowo wase-United States kunye neYurophu zidityanisiwe, kwaye umlinganiselo wentengiso yegesi yendalo uya kufana nowaseMelika, nto leyo eya kunyanzela urhulumente waseTshayina ukuba akhawulezise uphuhliso lwemveliso entsha. imithombo yamandla.

Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, uphando lwemarike yehlabathi kunye nenkampani yokuhlalutya i-IHS ikhuphe ingxelo yophando isithi ngo-2035, isikali semarike yamandla yaseTshayina iya kudlula i-United States neYurophu zidityanisiwe, kwaye ubungakanani bemarike yegesi yendalo buya kufana. kuleyo yemarike yase-US, ekwanyanzelisa urhulumente waseTshayina ukuba akhawulezise uphuhliso lwamandla amatsha. Ngokumalunga namaxabiso aphezulu alindelekileyo kunye neendleko zamandla, i-IHS ikholelwa ukuba i-China inokuphuhlisa izibonelelo zamandla acocekileyo ngaphandle kokuphakamisa amaxabiso amandla.

Uphuhliso olutsha lwamandla lusemnyango

Kule minyaka ili-10 idluleyo, uqoqosho lwaseTshayina luye lwakhula ngamandla, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwalo liye ledlula kude elo lamanye amazwe. Ulwakhiwo lwalo lweziseko ezingundoqo zombane lufumene uphuhliso oluhle, oluphindaphindeke kathathu kwangelo xesha linye. Uhlumo luvela ikakhulu kumbane owenziwe ngamalahle. Noko ke, njengoko imfuno iqhubeka isanda, iingxaki ezikhoyo ngoku zemekobume kunye neengxaki zongcoliseko lomoya ezidolophini ziye zasondela, nto leyo enyanzelela urhulumente ukuba acinge ngokwamkela imithombo yamandla acocekileyo.

I-IHS isandula ukugqibezela uphononongo malunga neendlela zophuhliso lwexesha elizayo lweemarike zegesi yendalo kunye nombane kumaphondo aseTshayina. Ingxelo yophando inesihloko esithi "UkuSombulula iTangram" (inguqulelo yesiTshayina "UkuSombulula iTangram", ephonononga unikezelo lwamandla, imfuno, iindleko, kunye nendlela amaxabiso aya kuyichaphazela ngayo imigaqo-nkqubo kunye nophuhliso lwexesha elizayo loshishino lwamandla eTshayina.

Ngokwengxelo, umthwalo wombane waseTshayina unyuke kakhulu kule minyaka ili-10 idlulileyo, wongeza i-80GW yomthamo ofakiweyo minyaka le, kwaye umthamo omtsha ofakiweyo rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine ulingana nomthamo okhoyo ofakiweyo waseJapan, umthengi wesithathu ngobukhulu emhlabeni. . Njengoko ukuveliswa kwamandla ombane ngamalahle kubangela uninzi lwamandla asanda kufakelwa, ukukhutshwa kombhobho wombane kubangele ukuwohloka okunzulu komgangatho womoya kwiindawo ezininzi zaseTshayina kunye nokunyuka okumandla komthwalo wombane, kwaye izikhalazo zoluntu ziye zazaliswa.

Utshintsho lusaqhuba. I-IHS iqikelela ukuba ulungelelwaniso lwezakhiwo kwimeko-bume yezoqoqosho kunye nophuculo lokusetyenziswa kwamandla luya kuthothisa ukukhula kwemfuno yombane kwixesha elizayo. I-IHS isebenzisa iindlela zokuhlalutya imeko ukuqikelela iimarike zamaphondo kunye nezixeko zaseTshayina kwiimeko ezintathu. Phantsi kwemeko yohlumo loqoqosho oluzinzileyo, umyinge wokukhula kwemfuno yamandla onyaka e-China ukusuka ngowama-2012 ukuya kowama-2035 uya kuba yi-4.1%, umndilili weminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo. I-1/3 yezinga lokukhula. Kodwa ukujonga ihlabathi, oku kukhula kusenamandla kakhulu, kuba isiseko semfuno sikhula rhoqo. Ngo-2026, imfuno yombane yaseChina iya kuphinda kabini xa kuthelekiswa no-2012, kwaye umthamo opheleleyo wombane uya kudlula isixa sase-United States neYurophu ngo-2035.

I-IHS ikholelwa ukuba oku kuthetha ukuba i-China kufuneka iqhubeke nokutyala imali ekwakhiweni kweziseko ezitsha zobonelelo lwamandla, ngelixa iphuhlisa iindlela ezahlukeneyo zobuchwepheshe zamandla acocekileyo, njengegesi, umoya kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla elanga. Nangona ixabiso lobu bugcisa butsha liphezulu kunelo lwemizi-mveliso yokuphehla amandla ngamalahle, ulwazi oluhlala lusanda ngokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo kuluntu luphela luya kukhuthaza ukukhula okukhawulezayo kobu bugcisa bucocekileyo, ingakumbi kumaphondo anengeniso ephezulu yonxweme nezixeko. Thatha igesi yendalo njengomzekelo. Ngenxa yexabiso eliphezulu lokuveliswa kombane ngerhasi kunye nokunqongophala kwemithombo yerhasi, kungoku nje kubalelwa kwi-2% kuphela yokuveliswa kwamandla eTshayina. Nangona kunjalo, umthamo ofakiweyo weeyunithi ezitsha zegesi uya kuhlala ukwisantya esiphezulu. Okwangoku, inani leeyunithi eziqhunyiswa ngegesi ezisakhiwayo nezicwangcisiweyo kweli lizwe zidlule kwi-30 yezigidi zeekilowatts, elilingana nelase-United States. Ngo-2035, ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yendalo ekuveliseni amandla kulindeleke ukuba kunyuke ngokuphindwe kalishumi.

Unokuba neentlanzi zombini kunye neebhere

Ngoko ke abantu abaninzi banenkxalabo yokuba ukunyuka kwenani lale mithombo yamandla exabiso eliphezulu kwinkqubo yamandla kunokukhokelela ekunyukeni kweendleko zokuvelisa umbane, ngaloo ndlela kubeka uxinzelelo kwixabiso lombane ukuba linyuke ngokukhawuleza. Nangona kunjalo, uphando lwe-IHS "Ukuvula iTangram" lubonisa ukuba ukuqhubeka nokungena kwala mandla matsha kunye nobuchwepheshe akusayi kuphakamisa umndilili weendleko zokuvelisa amandla eTshayina. "Ukunyuka kweendleko zepetroli, ukunyuka kokuxhomekeka ekuthengeni amandla angaphandle, kunye nokunganeliseki kwabantu okukhulayo kumgangatho wokusingqongileyo yiyo yonke imiba ekufuneka urhulumente ayenze. Kodwa kubatyalo-mali, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuqonda ukuba iChina ayifanele ithathwe njengemarike ye-Energy enye. " utshilo uZhou Xizhou, intloko kunye nentloko ye-IHS China Energy Research.

Amaphondo amaninzi eTshayina alingana nelizwe elinye kwiManyano yaseYurophu okanye ilizwe laseUnited States ngokwabemi, isikali soqoqosho, kunye nesikali senkqubo yamandla. Ngokomzekelo, amandla okuvelisa amandla afakwe kwiPhondo laseGuangxi phantse alingana nomthamo ofakiweyo waseNetherlands; ukusetyenziswa kwamalahle kwiphondo eliselunxwemeni Jiangsu phantse ilingana imfuno amalahle Canada. Kukwakho nezithuba ezinkulu kwimithombo yamafutha kunye namaxabiso phakathi kwamaphondo. Umzekelo, ixabiso langoku legesi yendalo eNingxia, iphondo elikumntla-ntshona, liphantse libe sisiqingatha seBeijing.

UZhou Xizhou ukholelwa ukuba: "Imarike yamandla phakathi kwamaphondo aseTshayina iya kwahlulwa ngakumbi, ibonisa ukungafani kwezibonelelo zezibonelelo, iindawo zokuhlala kunye nezigaba zophuhliso loqoqosho."

UZhou Xizhou uthe, “I-China ijonge indlela yokuphuhlisa amandla ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwenkqubo yamandla kumalahle nokusebenzisa ngakumbi ubugcisa bamandla acocekileyo, iseke imarike enkulu yegesi yendalo ukuqinisekisa unikezelo lwamandla olwaneleyo, kwaye ikwanethemba lokugcina amaxabiso ombane. Ukunganyuki kabukhali ukukhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho oluzinzileyo. “Uphando lwethu lubonisa ukuba ukuqhubekeka kophuhliso lwemithombo yexabiso eliphantsi efana nombane ophehlwa ngamanzi kuyakuthomalalisa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kweendleko ezibangelwa bubugcisa bokuvelisa amandla amaxabiso aphezulu obufana nerhasi yendalo namandla elanga. Ngoko ke, ukufuna umoya ococekileyo akuyi kukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso oMbane. E-China, intlanzi kunye neempuphu zebhere nazo zinokuba nazo zombini. "Utshilo uZhou Xizhou.